HEF POWER INDEX· 2026 EDITION
Who holds economic power in the Himalayas.
Five countries. Seven pillars of national capacity. One fixed scale, so every score can be compared across countries and across years.
Press play to rerun the years, drag the slider, choose a pillar, or open a country. Score out of 100 on fixed goalposts. Line under each bar: the range of 2025 scores across 5,000 tests of weights, scaling and data choices.
China leads on 6 of 7 pillars.
First in every one of 5,000 tests of the method, 11.8 points ahead of India.
The score gap has narrowed. The economic gap has not.
The score gap between China and India has moved from 16.0 to 11.8 points since 2015. Resilience accounts for 2.8 of the 4.2 points. China's economy was 5.4 times the size of India's in 2015 and 5.0 times in 2025. The gap in dollars widened from US$9.2 trillion to US$15.7 trillion.
Pakistan and Nepal are near level.
Their order holds in 83% of tests, short of the 90% the index requires, so both are shown with a rank range.
Who is gaining.
Power Score, 2015 to 2025, on the same fixed scale every year. Select a country to follow it.
The power gap.
Pick any two countries. Bars show where one leads the other, pillar by pillar.
- Energy65 · 87+21.6
- Water79 · 88+9.1
- Connectivity80 · 87+6.9
- Trade & Investment76 · 87+10.8
- Economic Weight78 · 89+10.8
- Environment65 · 82+16.2
- Resilience51 · 59+7.4
What power is made of.
Seven pillars, each scored 0–100 against fixed goalposts. Choose a pillar to see its indicators.
- 1China86.9
- 2India65.3
- 3Pakistan50.3
- 4Bhutan37.6
- 5Nepal37.1
| Indicator | China | India | Pakistan | Nepal | Bhutan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity generationEmber yearly electricity data; NEA and DGPC for Nepal and Bhutan 2025 capacity; Bhutan trade statistics and BPC for Bhutan electricity trade from 2020 · scale logarithmic | 94 | 77 | 52 | 24 | 24 |
| Hydropower generationEmber yearly electricity data; NEA and DGPC for Nepal and Bhutan 2025 capacity; Bhutan trade statistics and BPC for Bhutan electricity trade from 2020 · scale logarithmic | 95 | 68 | 48 | 32 | 32 |
| Installed hydropower capacityEmber yearly electricity data; NEA and DGPC for Nepal and Bhutan 2025 capacity; Bhutan trade statistics and BPC for Bhutan electricity trade from 2020 · scale logarithmic | 90 | 67 | 52 | 40 | 39 |
| Net electricity exportsEmber yearly electricity data; NEA and DGPC for Nepal and Bhutan 2025 capacity; Bhutan trade statistics and BPC for Bhutan electricity trade from 2020 · scale linear | 70 | 49 | 50 | 53 | 56 |
Weight it your way.
The published index weights every pillar equally. Move the sliders and the ranking re-orders live.
- 1China82.5
- 2India70.6
- 3Pakistan46.9
- 4Nepal44.2
- 5Bhutan30.1
Same order as the published index. Equal weights are the default; the uncertainty analysis tests thousands of other weightings.
Momentum and intensity.
Power is national capacity. These measures sit outside the score: how fast each country is moving, and how much it has per person.
Momentum
How fast each country is moving.
| Country | Score change 2015–2025 | Real GDP growth 2025 | Hydropower being built × installed | Export growth a year since 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | -1.1 | 5.0% | 0.16× | 5.7% |
| India | +3.0 | 7.8% | 0.27× | 7.8% |
| Pakistan | +1.9 | 3.2% | 0.84× | 3.1% |
| Nepal | +3.3 | 4.4% | 1.66× | 4.9% |
| Bhutan | +1.3 | 8.2% | 0.35× | 4.3% |
China’s score change comes from one pillar: Resilience moved -20.9 points. Leave it out and China’s score rose 2.2 points.
Intensity
How much each country has per person or per hectare.
| Country | GDP per person US$ | Online % of people | Forest % of land | Hydropower watts per person |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 13,862 | 92% | 24% | 272 |
| India | 2,702 | 70% | 24% | 34 |
| Pakistan | 1,596 | 57% | 4% | 45 |
| Nepal | 1,536 | 46% | 44% | 132 |
| Bhutan | 4,493 | 91% | 70% | 4,359 |
Founding Access
The evidence behind the index.
Founding members of the HEF Power Index receive the full indicator table, every value with its source, link, data year and goalposts, the time series behind every chart, the uncertainty analysis files and each edition's briefing before release. Founding Access is open for a limited period.
- Indicator table: 21 indicators for 5 countries, 2015–2025
- Raw values, sources, links and data years for every figure
- Uncertainty analysis: rank frequencies, pairwise orderings, sensitivity
- Edition briefings before release
How the index is built.
The HEF Power Index measures who holds economic power in the Himalayas and who is gaining it. The 2026 edition ranks India, China, Pakistan, Nepal and Bhutan as whole countries, from 2015 to 2025.
Power is national capacity, measured across seven pillars: Energy, Water, Connectivity, Trade & Investment, Economic Weight, Environment and Resilience. In the Himalayas the environment is part of the economic base, so forest, protected land and water count as national assets.
Every figure comes from an official or international source, the World Bank, the IMF, FAO, Ember and national utilities, and carries its source, link and data year.
Each indicator is scored from 0 to 100 against goalposts fixed in advance, on a logarithmic scale for size. A score therefore means the same thing in every year and for every country. Indicators are averaged within each pillar and the seven pillars are averaged with equal weight to give the Power Score. The Sustainable Power Score reduces it in proportion to tree-cover loss and the carbon intensity of output.
Ranks are tested 5,000 times with different weights, scaling methods and data treatments. A rank is shown as a single number only when it holds in at least nine of ten tests. Headline ranks, scores and this method are open to everyone; the full indicator tables are available to Founding Members for a limited period.
What the ranks claim
A rank is published as a single number only when it holds in at least nine of ten tests of the method; otherwise a range is shown. Scores are measured against fixed goalposts, so a score of 100 is a ceiling set in advance, not the best of the five.
Boundaries
Countries are measured as wholes, from national statistics as published by each government and compiled by the World Bank, the IMF, FAO and Ember. The index takes no position on disputed boundaries.